On Monday, the price failed to reach the 1.0534 target level but formed a weak divergence with the Marlin oscillator. Much of the decline in the currency market was linked to a drop in the stock market (S&P 500 -0.49%). However, the stock market still has potential for growth, which also extends to the euro. If the European currency is settling into a sideways trend amid prolonged political uncertainty, the lower boundary of this range could be much lower, around the MACD line at 1.0280.
These complex conditions create several short-term scenarios. The first and most likely is a price reversal from the 1.0458 support level, followed by an attempt to break above the upper boundary of the 1.0534/75 range. In this case, the current divergence could easily transform into another technical pattern. However, if the price consolidates below 1.0458, a decline toward 1.0350 becomes possible.
On the four-hour chart, the price is hesitating at the 1.0458 support level, deciding its next move. The Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, but for a confident decline, the price must consolidate below the MACD line at 1.0435. If the euro assesses its strength and decides against a downward move, it could rebound from the current support level.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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