On Friday, the euro fell by 20 pips, but it has already surpassed that day’s high this morning. However, it is likely to continue fluctuating within the range of 1.0350–1.0458 until Thursday, when the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Even today might be challenging for the euro, as the core CPI for February is projected to decline from 2.7% YoY to 2.5% YoY, while the overall CPI is forecasted to drop from 2.5% YoY to 2.3% YoY. A decrease in inflation could strengthen expectations for a rate cut.
On the other hand, expectations for the U.S. dollar are strengthening. The Manufacturing PMI for February is anticipated to rise from 51.2 to 51.6. If U.S. traders take a more decisive stance, the euro could consolidate below the 1.0350 support level even before the European Central Bank meeting, potentially opening the way to a target of 1.0273 along the daily MACD line.
On the H4 chart, the price is showing a more pronounced sideways movement, aided by a slight divergence with the Marlin oscillator. It is possible that upcoming economic data may not be particularly favorable for the dollar. Today and tomorrow are likely to be a period of waiting.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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