Main News of the Day: The U.S. Federal Trade Court has blocked the permanent implementation of import tariffs introduced by President Trump, ruling that he exceeded his authority. As an initial reaction to this news, the U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.53%, S&P 500 futures added 1.50%, and the euro is moving toward testing the target support level at 1.1066. A breakdown below this level would open the path toward 1.0955.
We do not oppose such an unexpected turn of events, at least not in terms of a broad and long-term dollar strengthening, since we have viewed the rise of anti-dollar currencies as a temporary phenomenon from the beginning of the sanctions war. But will today become a pivotal moment? It’s quite possible—if, on the weekly chart, the price consolidates below the MACD line, which coincides with May’s low at 1.1066. Should this happen, the first downside target would be the March 26 low at 1.0733.
The daily chart shows that the price has broken below the MACD line and the support level at 1.1266. The Marlin oscillator has plunged deeper into negative territory. However, if today’s candlestick closes at least at the opening level, this downward move may prove to be false, and the dollar’s global advance would be postponed.
In that case, the euro might attempt to overcome the 1.1535 level, with a target of 1.1692. Considering market momentum, the absence of clear reversal patterns, stock market optimism, rising yields on U.S. government bonds, and the lack of a yield curve inversion, we maintain the euro’s growth as the main scenario.
On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line and the 1.1266 level. However, this move may turn out to be false. A rise above the MACD line—specifically above the 1.1290 mark, which also coincides with the MACD line on the daily chart—would be a strong signal for growth toward the target level of 1.1420.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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