This morning the major currencies opened with a falling gap. For the euro, this gap amounted to 145 points, in the Asian session the gap was closed by half. If the planned negotiations between Russia and Ukraine still begin in the near future, then the euro will be able to completely close the morning window, returning to the level of 1.1280, but then we still expect further weakening of the single currency amid all the uncertainty and fears associated both directly with Ukraine and and with economic implications for the global economy. The Federal Reserve’s double rate hike on March 16th puzzles market participants again.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator turned down from the upper border of its own descending channel. At the same time, price convergence with the oscillator also takes place. Closing a gap followed by a downward price reversal fits well with these charting tools. Ultimately, we are waiting for the price at the target level 1.1060, and consolidating the price below it will open the target 1.0910.

On the four-hour chart, Marlin’s signal line turned down from the zero line. The situation is completely downward, and the whole question is whether the gap will close or not. It is quite possible that the gap will be closed much later, after the price declines to the level of 1.0910. This can happen if the Fed refuses to raise the rate at the March meeting due to fears of a subsidence of the economy in connection with the escalation of geopolitical tensions.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Jeff Wecker
Jeff Wecker

Jeff Wecker, the inventor of Forex Forager, is a former member of the Chicago Board of Trade. There, Jeff learned his craft in the 30-year bond pit, trading against the world's best, and now has survived and prospered in the industry for the past 25 years. He took the unique knowledge he gained at the CBOT and transitioned it to online trading, where he traded FX, commodities, stock indices, and bonds – all using his unique 5 pip/tick risk system. Visit us at Global Fx Trading Group