Last Friday, the euro was down 22 points. The trading volume was below the average, which suggests that big players have a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Such an observation would indicate a likely strong move right on the day of the announcement of the Fed meeting results.
I believe that the euro will move downward, since the Fed still maintains its monetary policy, including the verbal one, more hawkish than that of the European Central Bank meeting.
An extended divergence is gaining strength on the daily chart. We can talk about breaking the downtrend in the medium-term once the price has settled under the MACD indicator line (1.0718). By this time, the Marlin oscillator has already moved into negative territory. The first target will be the support at 1.0595, which is the December 5 high, coinciding with the Fibonacci correction level of 23.6% of the growth since last September 28.
On the four-hour chart, the price settled below the MACD line, but it is still held by the balance line, which indirectly confirms the wait-and-see attitude of speculators. Divergence pressure is weakening, the oscillator signal line may briefly return to the green zone, the price will develop sideways movement under the MACD line (1.0892).
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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